Mengenal – Membaca dan Memahami Grafik Pergerakan Harga

Pergerakan harga instrumen finansial baik saham maupun forex biasanya digambarkan dalam bentuk grafik. Grafik ini memudahkan trader untuk mengetahui pola-pola pergerakan harga yang terjadi sebelumnya. Ada beberapa jenis grafik yang biasa dipakai di pasar finansial yaitu:

  1. Line Chart/Grafik Garis
  2. Bar Chart/Grafik Batang
  3. Candlestick Chart/Grafik Lilin

Grafik Line Chart hanya memuat data harga dipenutupan perdagangan yang digambarkan dalam bentuk garis saja.

Sementara Bar Chart dan Candlestick Chart hampir sama dikarenakan memuat data harga pembukaan, harga penutupan, harga tertinggi dan terendah.

Hanya saja grafik candlestick lebih mudah dibaca dibandingkan grafik bar.

Di samping itu keunggulan lain dari candlestick chart adalah mampu menampilkan psikologi pasar dengan tampilan yang lebih mudah dibaca.

Pembahasan mengenai candlestick bisa Anda baca di artikel ini.

Berikut tampilan masing-masing chart menggunakan contoh Indeks S&P500:

Line Chart

Bar Chart

Candlestick Chart

Saya pribadi selalu menggunakan candlestick chart di platform trading yang saya gunakan karena enak dilihat dan mudah dipahami.

Nah, setelah Anda mengetahui jenis-jenis chart sekarang saatnya bagi Anda untuk belajar bagaimana membaca grafik harga.

MEMAHAMI GRAFIK HARGA

Di semua instrumen finansial harga bisa bergerak naik,bergerak turun maupun sideways (range harga sempit).

Di dunia trading Anda akan sering mendengar istilah-istilah berikut:

  • Trend = periode dimana harga bergerak menuju ke arah tertentu bisa naik dan turun
  • Range = periode dimana harga bergerak dalam ruang yang sempit atau harga bergerak flat (sideways)
  • Bullish = Uptrend = Rally = Harga bergerak naik
  • Bearish = Downtrend = Harga turun

Untuk penjelasan lebih lanjut Anda bisa perhatikan gambar di bawah ini.

Pertama harga bergerak turun (downtrend) ,kemudian untuk waktu tertentu harga bergerak sideways dan setelahnya harga mengalami kenaikan (uptrend).

Tapi harap diketahui juga walaupun trend besar sedang bearish (garis yang berwana merah), ada minor uptrend di dalamnya (garis warna biru). Harga bisa memiliki Primary Trend (trend besar), Secondary Trend (trend sedang) dan Minor Trend (trend kecil).

Umumnya di dalam setiap platform trading kita dapat memilih chart dengan periode waktu:

  • M1 = 1 menit
  • M5 = 5 menit
  • M15 = 15 menit
  • M30 = 30 menit
  • 1H = 1 jam
  • 4H = 4 jam
  • 1D = 1 hari
  • 1W = 1 minggu dan
  • 1M = 1 bulan

Gambar grafik harga di bawah ini menggunakan contoh forex pair EUR/USD (Euro-Dollar) untuk  memberikan gambaran kepada Anda bagaimana sebuah grafik harga dapat membantu trader menentukan posisinya berada dimana pada saat akan trading.

Chart M5

Chart M30

Chart 1H

Chart 4H

Chart 1D

Chart 1W

Chart 1M

Coba Anda perhatikan pada chart M5, M30, 1H Anda akan menemukan bahwa harga sedang mengalami downtrend.

Tetapi apakah benar harga sedang downtrend? Anda bisa lihat chart dengan periode yang lebih panjang.

Misalnya pada contoh di atas kita menggunakan chart 4H dan 1D (grafik harian) menunjukkan sedang terjadi periode uptrend. Dan jika Anda memilih chart 1W (grafik mingguan) dan 1M (grafik bulanan) Anda akan mendapati bahwa harga sedang dalam fase konsolidasi (sideways) yang cukup lama.

Berdasarkan contoh di atas kita dapat mengambil kesimpulan bahwa forex pair EUR/USD Primary Trend-nya sedang mengalami konsolidasi, Secondary Trend-nya sedang uptrend dan Minor Trend-nya sedang downtrend.

Trend yang manakah yang harus Anda ikuti?

Jawabannya tergantung!

Trader tipe apakah Anda? Penentuan trend bisa berbeda tiap trader berdasarkan time frame yang dipilih.

Trend besar bagi day trader belum tentu trend besar pula bagi swing trader dan trend follower.

Menentukan trend ketika akan melakukan transaksi sangat krusial bagi keberhasilan trader melakukan transaksi. Trader harus mengetahui dengan jelas posisinya berada dimana saat itu. Sebaiknya Anda trading menggunakan time frame yang sesuai dengan gaya trading Anda yang sudah dijelaskan di artikel ini.

Ketika trading untuk melakukan transaksi jual beli Anda dapat menggunakan dua buah chart sekaligus.

Yang satu sebagai chart utama Anda sebagai petunjuk untuk membeli atau menjual. Dan yang kedua chart dengan periode waktu lebih panjang untuk mengetahui trend besar yang terjadi.

Tujuannya adalah agar Anda tidak trading melawan trend besar, agar peluang memperoleh profit lebih besar pula. Jika trend besar sedang berlawanan dengan trend kecil sebaiknya Anda tidak membuka posisi. Atau Anda dapat pula mencari instrumen lain yang trend besarnya sama dengan trend kecilnya. Anda harus melihat market sebagai big picture.

Contoh lebih detailnya sebagai berikut:

1.Scalper dapat menggunakan chart dengan time frame M5 sebagai panduan untuk entry (membuka posisi buy) dan exit (menutup posisi baik loss maupun profit). Dan dapat menjadikan chart dengan time frame M30 sebagai trend besar. Contohnya seperti gambar di bawah ini.

Kita lihat bahwa trend besar sinkron dengan trend kecilnya.Yang di sebelah kiri adalah trend besar dengan menggunakan time frame M30 dan yang di sebelah kanan adalah trend M5 yang akan Anda gunakan sebagai ketika trading.

2.Day trader dapat menggunakan chart dengan time frame M30 sebagai panduan untuk melakukan transaksi beli dan jual. Dan dapat menjadikan chart dengan time frame 4H sebagai trend besar.

Pada contoh grafik di atas kita bisa melihat bahwa harga baik di trend besar 4H maupun di trend kecil M30 sama-sama memasuki area support. Kedua chart saling mendukung untuk dilakukan transaksi beli jika Anda memakai strategi Buy on Support.

3.Swing Trader dapat menggunakan chart dengan time frame 1D sebagai panduan untuk melakukan transaksi beli dan jual. Dan dapat menjadikan chart dengan time frame 1W sebagai trend besar.

Grafik yang di sebelah kiri adalah chart dengan time frame 1W yang kita jadikan sebagai acuan trend besar dan yang di sebelah kanan adalah grafik 1D dimana kita melakukan transaksi.

4.Trend Follower dapat hanya menggunakan chart 1W karena biasanya sudah menggambarkan trend yang cukup kuat.Tetapi jika ingin dipadukan dengan chart 1M juga tidak apa-apa.

Grafik yang di sebelah kiri adalah chart dengan time frame 1M (grafik bulanan) dan yang di sebelah kanan adalah chart dengan time frame 1 W (grafik mingguan).

Konsistensi sangat penting dalam trading, termasuk dalam pemilihan time frame. Anda harus konsisten dengan time frame yang Anda pilih sesuai dengan gaya trading Anda.

Misalnya Anda memilih untuk menjadi Swing Trader maka Anda harus konsisten dengan time frame 1D (grafik harian) untuk membuka posisi,menentukan stop loss price,profit target price serta menutup posisi.

Gonta-ganti time frame hanya akan membuat Anda bingung untuk membuat keputusan ketika trading dan mudah terpengaruh oleh opini trader lain.

Di artikel ini Anda akan belajar bagaimana cara menentukan trend apapun time frame yang Anda gunakan.

Good luck!

Enjoy the process and have good trading habits!

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